A CNN data analyst has issued a blunt warning to Vice President JD Vance: his standing in New Hampshire’s 2028 Republican primary is collapsing just as Secretary of State Marco Rubio mounts a dramatic comeback. Chief data analyst Harry Enten told viewers on July 23 that Vance should be deeply concerned about his eroding position in the Granite State.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has climbed from just 7% support in February to 26% in the latest University of New Hampshire survey, narrowing Vance’s once-commanding advantage to a mere 10-point gap. The vice president now registers 36% backing among likely Republican primary voters, a precipitous decline from the 53% majority he commanded five months earlier. Enten characterized Rubio’s trajectory as resembling a climb “up to Mount Washington” while Vance’s numbers have been “dropping like a rock.”
Historical Context Shows Weakness
That 10-point cushion represents a strikingly fragile position for any sitting vice president operating under a popular same-party president, according to Enten. Former Vice President Al Gore commanded a 40-point advantage over his closest rival in early 2000 polling, yet still barely defeated former Senator Bill Bradley in New Hampshire’s primary. Former Vice President George H.W. Bush enjoyed a 26-point lead in early 1988 New Hampshire surveys before stumbling in Iowa and needing to rebound with a win in the state. Measured against those historical benchmarks, Vance’s current margin falls far short of what a vice president would typically be expected to maintain, a dynamic Enten described as “not the case” for the current officeholder.
The deterioration has occurred even as Vance undertakes what Enten called “one of the biggest pushes of his vice presidency in terms of PR,” including a recent book tour designed to elevate his national standing. Yet in New Hampshire, the analyst concluded, “it doesn’t seem to be working in the Granite State.”
National Favorability Remains Negative
Beyond New Hampshire, broader warning signals continue to flash. Navigator Research polling released June 16, 2026, showed 52% of Americans hold an unfavorable view of the vice president, with 40% rating him favorably for a net score of -12. That unfavorable camp includes 40% who consider him “very unfavorable.” The figure has remained essentially static, hovering at net -11 across the four preceding surveys conducted by the same organization.
While Vance performs slightly better than President Donald Trump, whose net favorability stands at -17, he trails Rubio significantly at -5. The vice president also lags far behind Pope Leo, who posts a net favorability of +35 despite Vance’s recently published book detailing his conversion to Catholicism. Among Catholics specifically, the pontiff registers +57 net favorability compared with the vice president’s -12.
Gender divides present particular challenges. Women give Vance a -20 net favorability rating while men place him at -4, according to the survey. Among self-identified “childless cat ladies,” his net favorability plummets to -28. Approximately one-third of voters express top concern that he functions as “a Trump yes-man,” while an equal proportion cite his earlier statements suggesting President Donald Trump could be “America’s Hitler” before joining the ticket. On policy matters, the vice president posts negative ratings across every category surveyed, ranging from gas prices at net -39 to inflation and the cost of living at net -27, with immigration representing his strongest area at -9.
Global Strategy Group conducted the survey with 1,000 registered voters participating between June 4 and June 8, 2026, and results carry an error range of 3.1 percentage points in either direction.
Youth Support Shows Similar Erosion
Data focused on younger Americans confirms the pattern of declining support. The Yale Youth Poll’s spring 2026 findings place Vance atop the Republican primary field at 43%, with Rubio second at 17%. But the trajectory mirrors the New Hampshire trend: Vance dropped eight percentage points from the fall 2025 survey while Rubio gained 12 percentage points during the same period.
Young voters show widespread dissatisfaction with the current administration. Disapproval of Trump’s job performance reaches 57% overall, climbing to 68% for respondents between 18 and 22 years old and reaching 72% for the 23-to-29 age bracket. Democratic primary results from the same poll show former Vice President Kamala Harris leading at 20%, followed by California’s Governor Gavin Newsom with 19%, ex-Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 14%, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 13%.
Following a meeting with House Republicans, Vance recently projected optimism about his party’s electoral future, stating the GOP would “support the results of the midterm elections” no matter the outcome. “We think we’re going to win. But ultimately that’s up to the American people,” he said.
With more than two years remaining before the first 2028 ballots are cast, current polling represents a momentary measurement rather than a final judgment. Yet the trajectory presents an unmistakable challenge: a once-dominant front-runner now watches a competitor who stood in “the cellar” six months ago steadily narrow what had seemed an insurmountable lead.
