Vice President JD Vance’s prospects for the 2028 presidential race are deteriorating rapidly as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings plummet and multiple foreign policy debacles pile up, according to a source with close ties to the White House.
The vice president’s standing among Republican primary voters has slipped from 41% in January to 36% in April, according to YouGov polling. On prediction markets, his odds of capturing the White House in 2028 have cratered from about 33% last October to roughly 20% on Kalshi.
Even more troubling for the Ohio Republican: a December 2025 survey of more than 1,500 registered voters showed him trailing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 51% to 49% in a potential 2028 contest. The New York Democrat dominated among younger Americans, leading Vance by 16 points with voters aged 18-29. Eight percent of people who voted for Trump in 2024 said they would back Ocasio-Cortez in that matchup.
“Trump is imploding, and he’s probably going to take JD down with him unless there’s a course correction,” the source told reporters this week.
The administration’s handling of the Iran conflict has emerged as a central problem. An explosive forthcoming book by New York Times reporters Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman reveals that Vance was the sole senior official who forcefully expressed skepticism about launching Operation Epic Fury, which kicked off Feb. 28, 2026. The Marine Corps veteran who served in Iraq had publicly opposed military intervention in Iran even before joining the ticket.
During a Feb. 26 meeting before the operation began, Vance told the president: “You know I think this is a bad idea, but if you want to do it, I’ll support you.”
The war has claimed more than 1,700 civilian lives in Iran, including at least 254 children, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. Seven American service members have died in Iranian attacks, and six more perished when a refueling aircraft went down in Iraq.
Trump tapped Vance to helm peace negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, where the vice president spent 21 grueling hours trying to broker a deal. The effort collapsed due to infighting among American negotiators themselves. While Vance insisted Iran eliminate all uranium enrichment capabilities, Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff advocated a gentler approach that would allow the U.S. to provide uranium to Iran for peaceful purposes.
The talks suffered another blow when reports emerged that Kushner had been providing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with daily updates from the negotiations, torpedoing U.S. credibility. Iranian officials viewed Vance as the only administration figure genuinely committed to reaching an agreement. During the marathon session, Trump attended a UFC event in Miami and posted on social media without mentioning the diplomatic efforts.
The vice president’s net favorability has plunged 21 points since January 2025, making him the most unpopular vice president in history at this point in his tenure. Trump’s numbers tell a similarly bleak story. A CNN/SSRS poll released April 1 showed his economic approval at a career-worst 31%, while only 27% approve of his inflation management, down from 44% a year earlier. Two-thirds of Americans believe Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions.
The president’s overall approval ranges between 35% and 41% across different surveys. Among men, his approval dropped to a new second-term low of 41% in polling conducted April 9-13. Strong approval among Republicans has fallen from 52% at the beginning of his term to 43%, according to CNN/SSRS.
Vance’s difficulties mounted during a disastrous week in which Hungary’s Viktor Orbán — a populist strongman the vice president had actively supported — suffered a crushing electoral defeat. Combined with the failed Pakistan negotiations and continued polling deterioration, insiders worry the MAGA movement’s presumed heir is watching his political inheritance evaporate.
