Two years of echoing the White House line on nearly everything ended with one long post, in which the vice president told his own party it lost because of a war.
Vice President JD Vance blamed the Republican midterm collapse on the war in Iran in a lengthy post on X on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026, a day after Democrats seized control of both chambers of Congress.
“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vance wrote.
He left room for an argument on the other side. “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest,” Vance wrote, before adding in the same post: “But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”
Four Tasks From a Pollster
Vance built the post around a four-item to-do list he credited to a pollster he described as “one of the smartest people I know in politics.” The first task is ending the war in Iran. The second is focusing on the cost of living and inflation, the third is putting America first, and the fourth, he wrote, is to “Change our relationship to Israel.”
Turnout was not the party’s problem, Vance argued. Republican-side data analysts had fixated on whether the 2026 electorate would resemble the one in 2024, and those numbers held up well enough in state after state, he wrote. The defeat came instead from voters who backed Trump and Vance in 2024 and then voted Democratic this year — voters pollsters told him were angry.
The war, now in its eighth month, began in late February. Gas and diesel prices have run sharply higher in the United States and globally since it started, a reversal for a president who campaigned in 2024 on ending foreign wars and lowering prices. An Election Day voter poll found 34% said the war was “crucial” to their vote, and about four in 10 House voters said they were angry about the country’s direction.
Trump Calls It Largely True
President Donald Trump, asked about the post, told reporters: “I think it’s largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term.” He said he would do it again, because Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. In election night interviews he had already named the war as part of the reason for the losses. Asked whether he knew the post was coming, Trump said he knows how Vance feels about the war and that the post was fine.
Speaking to reporters in the White House ballroom on Nov. 4, Trump said the war would end “whenever I want it to, but it’s gotta be done right.”
Trump said on Election Day Nov. 3, that he would cut military aid to Israel at the end of this year, a year before the current memorandum of understanding expires. Democrats in the House and Senate have voted for measures to cut military aid or block weapons sales to Israel, and Republicans rejected them almost across the board. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, poised to become House speaker, said Nov. 4 that Democrats, after flipping both chambers, will seek an end to the Iran war as part of a broader affordability agenda.
Jonathan Greenberg, director for combatting antisemitism at Defending Education and a former staffer for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, called Vance’s comments nonsense and said the vice president is wrong. Daniel Di Martino, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute, wrote on X that polling data does not support Vance’s claims, citing tariffs, deportations and corruption.
A Shake-Up at the Top
Trump announced on Friday, Nov. 6, that White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller would replace Susie Wiles as chief of staff, effective Monday, Nov. 9. Wiles submitted her resignation the night of Thursday, Nov. 5, after Trump privately blamed her for the midterm losses, according to sources cited by ABC News. Publicly, Trump said the change was “not because of the election. It’s just time.”
Vance thanked Wiles for her service and congratulated Miller on a “well deserved promotion.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, whose job security came into question after Vance and other Republicans blamed the midterms on the Iran war, posted “Patriots in control.”
Republican lawmakers have spread the blame wider than Vance did, pointing to the war, the administration’s tariff policies, a focus on pet projects such as the ballroom and weak candidates. Outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis called the midterms “close to an extinction-level event for Republicans.” Steve Bannon predicted a “civil war” in the party, blamed the economy and “foreign wars,” and called on Trump to double down on mass deportations.
Courting Voters Who Feel Betrayed
Vance is courting disgruntled Trump voters for a “new right” alliance ahead of 2028, according to unnamed sources. A Trump administration official told Fox News Digital that the four tasks amount to the vice president’s rallying cry for a coalition aligned with Trump’s original America First movement, built on staying out of foreign conflicts, affordability for families and border security. The official framed it as loyalty to Trump rather than a break of the kind former Vice President Mike Pence made after Jan. 6, aimed at Trump supporters who feel betrayed by the administration’s foreign policy.
Republican strategist Whit Ayres said, “There’s still plenty of Maga voters out there who have supported Donald Trump through thick and thin.”
Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, reposted the vice president’s assessment on X with an endorsement.
Democrats held 54 Senate seats to the Republicans’ 44 as of Sunday, Nov. 8, a net gain of seven in a chamber where 51 seats are needed for control, with Texas, Ohio and Maine flipping and the Alaska and Mississippi races razor-thin. Democrats had 237 House seats as of the afternoon of Nov. 4, with more races still being called. Republicans had lost 30 House seats at that point, with more than 20 races unprojected.
Vance has long been a skeptic of U.S. intervention abroad, and he has sought to distance himself publicly from the conflict ahead of a possible 2028 run. Early in the war it was reported that he was dubious of and opposed to striking Tehran as Trump weighed the decision; after it began he defended Operation Epic Fury, then steered clear of the subject for months. Trump said earlier in 2026 that his vice president had been perhaps not as keen on attacking Iran. On Sunday, Nov. 8, Trump told reporters that “a lot of people didn’t like” Vance’s comments, though not him, and that Vance “was right, other than one thing,” saying his vice president should have added that the war was worth doing again. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are widely considered the leading Republican contenders for 2028, and the midterm results are widely seen as a referendum on Trump’s presidency.
