Democratic primary voters have shattered turnout records during the 2026 election cycle, delivering what CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten called a warning sign that should leave the White House “running scared.”
More than 25 million Democrats participated in primaries this cycle, eclipsing the 23 million who voted throughout 2018’s contests, Enten said during an August 13, 2026, appearance on “The Source” with anchor Kaitlan Collins. That earlier cycle became synonymous with anti-Trump energy and resulted in substantial gains for Democrats in the House. The analyst described the current participation numbers as “absolutely bonkers huge.”
Since 2006, the party demonstrating higher primary engagement has consistently won control of the House, Enten noted — a trend that bodes poorly for Republicans defending narrow majorities ahead of November’s elections. Voters will determine the composition of all 435 House seats, 35 Senate positions, and 36 governorships. The GOP presently commands a 219-212 House advantage and controls the Senate 53-47, but forecasters anticipate significant challenges for the party in both chambers.
Elevated participation among Democratic voters signals President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity, Enten observed. Collins pointed out that Trump himself has referenced Enten’s analysis in the past, then asked what conclusions the data expert would draw if he were advising the administration. The analyst cautioned that Democrats confront their own weaknesses, noting that Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed carries a minus-13 percent net favorability rating while Iowa candidate Josh Turek stands at plus-18 percent.
Gas Prices and the Iran War Drive Trump’s Numbers Down
AAA reported gasoline at $4.0776 per gallon, up from roughly $3 before the administration’s conflict with Iran began. That spike has produced the worst disapproval ratings of the century for a president on fuel costs, according to separate polling data Enten examined this week.
Seventy-nine percent of Americans disapprove of how Trump handles gas prices — surpassing former President Joe Biden’s 72 percent peak, former President Barack Obama’s 68 percent high, and former President George W. Bush’s 75 percent mark. Enten said “no president has been hated more when it comes to gas prices,” emphasizing that even 66 percent of GOP working-class voters, ordinarily the president’s loyal base, register dissatisfaction with rising costs.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai insisted oil prices will decline once the administration resolves matters with Iran, but the political toll continues mounting. Among voters describing themselves as extremely motivated to participate, approval of Trump’s Iran policy fell by 24 percentage points between July 2024 and July 2026, dropping from a majority of 53 percent down to just 29 percent. Only 27 percent of all voters expect the U.S. will secure a favorable deal with Iran, and just 41 percent of Republicans anticipate a successful outcome.
The damage has erased a longstanding Republican advantage on national security. A January 2025 survey showed the GOP leading on handling wars, conflicts, and terrorism by an 18-point margin over Democrats. That advantage has now reversed into a two-point Democratic lead — a shift of 20 percentage points in 19 months.
MAGA’s Core Voters Are Walking Away
The voters who propelled Trump’s presidential victories have turned sharply against him. On August 7, Enten reported that Americans without a college degree — central to Trump’s appeal in both elections — have abandoned the MAGA movement in dramatic fashion. Net approval for the movement among non-college adults sat at plus six percentage points last October but has since cratered to minus 22 points, a 28-point shift.
Trump defeated Kamala Harris among non-college voters by 13 points in the 2024 election, yet his average net approval with that demographic has plunged to minus 19 points — a 32-point reversal. Republicans enjoyed a 13-point advantage among non-college voters following the 2024 election, but Democrats now edge ahead by one point in an average of polls.
GOP strategist David Winston conceded that if Democrats maintain their economic advantages and capture double-digit margins among independents, a blue wave becomes possible. The numbers offer scant reassurance to an administration already preparing for a difficult autumn as the midterms approach.
Southern States Shift Toward Democrats
Also on Thursday, in a CNN “News Central” segment, Enten outlined what he characterized as a potentially historic opening for Democrats in three Southern states. Polling shows Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff up 13 points in his re-election bid, former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper ahead by nine in his Senate race, and Texas state Rep. James Talarico leading his Republican rival by two. Democrats last won a North Carolina Senate seat in 2008, while Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, rendering these polling advantages especially noteworthy.
