President Donald Trump’s standing orders to obliterate Iran in the event of his assassination, first issued in February 2025, have transformed from what many dismissed as bluster into active military policy following a dramatic escalation of strikes against Iranian targets.
U.S. Central Command carried out a third round of strikes against Iran on July 11-12, 2026, with CENTCOM stating “The Commander in Chief has directed the strikes to hold Iranian forces accountable.” The U.S. struck more than 100 sites — approximately 140 targets — in Iran, targeting missile and drone launch sites, ammunition dumps and communication equipment, following a missile attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran carried out retaliatory strikes on targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. A container ship’s crew was forced to abandon their vessel while it was ablaze.
Trump reiterated his assassination contingency instructions in a recent statement, saying: “I’ve left instructions — if anything happens, to just literally bomb them at levels that they’ve never seen before.”
A Warning Rooted in Years of Iranian Plots
The president’s original declaration came at a February 2025 signing ceremony for a sweeping executive order targeting Iran. “I’ve left instructions. If they do it, they get obliterated; there won’t be anything left,” Trump declared at the event.
That warning stemmed from years of documented Iranian attempts on his life — a campaign tracing directly to January 2020, when Trump ordered the drone strike in Baghdad that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force. Top Iranian officials have said publicly and repeatedly since then that they want revenge, and that Trump and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are targets.
Trump’s security team has taken those threats seriously for years. After the second assassination attempt on Trump in Florida in 2024 — which was not linked to Iran — his detail was so concerned about the Iranian threat that it had Trump travel to an event on a decoy plane owned by Steve Witkoff. The Justice Department has documented multiple alleged Iranian plots against Trump and other former officials, including a 2022 scheme targeting former National Security Adviser John Bolton.
The Death of the Man Who Threatened Trump
On March 10, 2026, as U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran intensified, Ali Larijani, then-head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and one of the most powerful figures in the Islamic Republic’s clerical regime, threatened the president with assassination in a post on X, writing: “The freedom-loving nation of Iran is not afraid of your hollow threats. Even those who were mightier than you have failed to destroy the Iranian nation. Watch yourself — or you’ll be eliminated.”
The message was signed by the Supreme National Security Council and referenced the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who died on February 28, 2026 — the opening day of the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. Larijani had also vowed on national television to hold Trump personally responsible for the supreme leader’s death. Trump brushed off the threat in an interview with CBS News, saying he “couldn’t care less.”
One week later, Larijani was dead. Israel announced on March 17-18, 2026, that it had killed him alongside Gholam Reza Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Basij militia. Iranian authorities confirmed both deaths. The man who had most publicly threatened to eliminate Trump had himself been eliminated — a sequence that illustrated, with grim precision, exactly what Trump meant when he said those who came for him would be obliterated.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that the leader of the Iranian unit behind a prior assassination attempt on Trump had also been killed in U.S. military strikes. “Iran tried to kill President Trump, and President Trump got the last laugh,” Hegseth announced. Trump addressed the killing directly on March 2, saying: “I got him before he got me. They tried twice. Well, I got him first.” Though Hegseth did not name the individual, Israeli reporter Amit Segal identified him as Rahman Mokadam, the head of the IRGC’s special operations division.
Conviction of the IRGC Operative
On March 7, 2026, a federal jury in New York convicted Asif Merchant, a 47-year-old Pakistani national trained by the IRGC, of murder for hire and attempting to commit an act of terrorism transcending national boundaries. Merchant admitted at trial that the IRGC sent him to the United States in 2024 to arrange political assassinations, with Trump named explicitly as a target. The plot was foiled before it could be carried out. Merchant faces a maximum penalty of life in prison, with sentencing pending.
Former Attorney General Pamela Bondi said of the verdict: “This man landed on American soil hoping to kill President Trump — instead, he was met with the might of American law enforcement.” A newly released undercover video shown in the Brooklyn courtroom captured Merchant describing the plot in detail, placing a vape pen on a napkin to represent his target and asking: “This is the target. How will it die?”
An Unstable Ceasefire and Fragile Diplomacy
The war itself has since entered a tense and unstable pause. On April 8, 2026, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire after Iran agreed to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The deal, brokered with Pakistan’s assistance, was presented by the White House as a step toward broader negotiations. Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner traveled to Islamabad to hold direct talks with Iranian representatives.
Iran has been accused of charging fees to tankers transiting the Strait — a violation, in Trump’s view, of the terms they agreed to. By mid-May, Trump declared the ceasefire “on massive life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest counterproposal as “totally unacceptable.”
As of May 23, President Trump posted on Truth Social that an agreement has been “largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries.”
Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed the deal would begin with a memorandum of understanding as an initial phase, followed by broader negotiations within 30 to 60 days. Still, both sides are sending mixed messages: Iran disputes Trump’s description and, according to state media, insists the Strait of Hormuz will remain under its control. Some Republican senators have also warned that pursuing a deal could create a perception of American weakness.
The main obstacles remain nuclear enrichment and control of the Strait. Trump has claimed Iran agreed to stop enriching uranium and that the U.S. will recover and remove prior nuclear material. Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization head has said the country will not accept restrictions on its enrichment. The U.S. might seek a 20-year time limit on Iran’s commitments, while Iran has countered with a five-year proposal.
The Strait is in deep crisis. As of May 23, only two vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in a 24-hour period, compared with a pre-crisis average of 95 per day. Brent crude rose to $116.73, reflecting expectations of sustained supply disruption, with WTI (West Texas Intermediate) at $112.25.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has boarded and attacked merchant ships and deployed sea mines in the strait. Since April 13, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, creating what is being called a “dual blockade.” Before the conflict, roughly 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 20% of global liquefied natural gas transited the strait.
As recently as May 20, the IRGC said vessels must coordinate passage through the strait with its navy, claiming it had arranged transit for 26 ships in 24 hours.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs confirmed on May 6 that 22,500 mariners remain aboard more than 1,550 commercial vessels in and around the strait, with traffic operating at roughly 5% of its pre-conflict level.
A deal seems closer than at any earlier stage of the dispute — Trump says it is “largely negotiated” — yet Iran is publicly rejecting his characterization and asserting control over the strait. Iranian spokesman Baghaei said any mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz should be agreed by Iran, Oman, and neighboring states, and that the United States “has nothing to do” with it. Both sides appear to be addressing domestic audiences while negotiators work to finalize the Memorandum of Understanding framework.
More than a year after Trump’s February 2025 warning, those instructions look less like a hypothetical deterrent and more like a policy already in motion. The United States has been at active war with Iran since February 28, 2026. The Iranian official who publicly threatened to kill Trump is dead. The operative Iran sent to carry out an assassination plot has been convicted in a Brooklyn courtroom. Whether the conflict ends in negotiation or escalation, Trump’s warning has ceased to be a deterrent — and become, instead, a description of what has already happened.
