CNN data analyst Harry Enten noted a bleak benchmark for President Donald Trump on Wednesday: a full year of negative approval numbers.
During the March 11, 2026 edition of CNN News Central, anchor John Berman and Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten examined new data showing that Trump has been below water in polling averages for 365 straight days. The report marked an unwelcome anniversary for the White House as Trump faces rising political headwinds ahead of the 2026 midterms.
“Every day since March 12th, 2025, President Trump has been underwater,” Enten declared, presenting his compiled polling figures. He colorfully summed up the president’s situation: “Trump has been swimming with the fishes for a year.”
The figures are troubling for Republicans. Enten’s breakdown shows Trump’s net approval among independent voters has plunged to -38 points — deeper than George W. Bush at -26 or Barack Obama at -18 at similar stages of their second terms. Enten described Trump’s position with this key group as “downright awful.”
A Fox News poll referenced in the segment found 60 percent of Americans overall believe the Trump administration is prioritizing the wrong issues. That share rises to 78 percent among independents. The seasoned data journalist didn’t sugarcoat the political fallout: “That’s a big frickin’ problem!”
Wednesday’s report continues a series of polling analyses Enten has produced during Trump’s second term. In November 2025, he examined Trump’s approval with correspondent Elex Michaelson, looking at voter sentiment on tariffs and economic policy. At that point, Trump’s approval among independents had already dropped from -4 in January to -43 in November — a collapse Enten labeled politically fatal.
The president’s flagship legislative effort has also struggled for public backing. When Enten analyzed polling on Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in June 2025, he found net approval between -19 and -29 points across various surveys. Trump signed the large tax-and-spending package on July 4, 2025, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking Senate vote to pass it 51-50.
Vance has stayed prominently in the spotlight during the administration. The vice president, who served as an Ohio senator from 2023 to 2025, has been a principal defender and interpreter of Trump’s policies. He also became the first sitting vice president to act as Republican National Committee finance chairman, taking on key fundraising duties ahead of the November midterms.
The political stakes are substantial. Enten observed that prediction markets now put Democrats at a 46 percent chance to reclaim both the House and Senate — up from 21 percent at the start of 2026. Democrats have an 84 percent chance of retaking the House alone. Such results would significantly alter the final two years of Trump’s presidency.
Not all polling has been bleak for Trump. He retains exceptionally strong support within his party — 86 percent of Republicans approve of his job performance, the highest in-party approval of any 21st-century president at this stage of a second term. Bush and Obama were both at 77 percent. More than half of Republicans say they “strongly approve” of Trump, a majority neither predecessor achieved.
Trump’s foreign policy scores have offered some positives. Enten reported in November that Trump’s 43 percent approval on foreign policy topped both Bush and Obama at a comparable point in their second terms, largely driven by his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Still, the overall trend remains worrying for Republicans. In February 2026, ahead of Trump’s State of the Union, Enten said the president’s net approval had dropped to -27 points — his worst pre-State of the Union rating. His earlier lows were -15 points in both 2018 and 2019.
For CNN, the sustained polling coverage reflects a commitment to data-focused political reporting. Enten, who was promoted to Chief Data Analyst in February 2025, has become a go-to voice on electoral trends. His frequent segments translating complex survey results into TV-friendly analysis have made him a regular on CNN News Central’s morning lineup.
As Trump reaches one year of continuous negative approval ratings, Republicans face the question of whether that pattern will persist through November. If it does, Enten’s analysis suggests the midterms could be calamitous for the president’s party — turning what Trump called his “big beautiful bill” into, as Enten said, “a big, beautiful night” for Democrats.
