Popular podcaster Joe Rogan, whose 2024 endorsement helped propel President Donald Trump back to the White House, now believes the Democrats will seize control in the next presidential contest, driven by public anger over the administration’s military involvement in Iran.
On May 20, 2026, the 58-year-old host pointed to the deeply unpopular war in Iran as the primary reason Republicans will lose in 2028. During his podcast episode, Rogan said people are examining the Republicans and the Iran war, which he characterized as extremely unpopular. He noted that polling shows support for the conflict at roughly 30 percent and predicted that Democrats will win in 2028 with new ideas because people want something different than the current situation.
The forecast marks a stunning reversal for Rogan, who endorsed Trump just days before the November 5, 2024, election and is widely credited with helping the Republican candidate mobilize younger male voters in key battleground states and secure his return to the presidency. Since January 2026, however, Rogan has been increasingly distancing himself from Trump and his policies, with his sharpest criticism focused on the ongoing military conflict.
The former Fear Factor host has not held back in expressing his disappointment with Trump’s foreign policy decisions. On an earlier episode, Rogan said the situation seems insane based on what Trump ran on, noting that many people feel betrayed. He emphasized that Trump campaigned on ending stupid and senseless wars, yet the country now has one that cannot be clearly defined. Rogan added that the war simply does not make sense to him.
Rogan’s track record in election forecasting is mixed. On August 2, 2024, during an episode of The Joe Rogan Experience featuring cultural commentator Michael Malice, Rogan predicted that then-Vice President Kamala Harris would defeat Trump in that year’s presidential election. When Malice countered that Harris would not win, Rogan clarified he was not saying it because he thought she would win or wanted her to, but was just being honest.
Rogan explained his reasoning was based less on Harris’s appeal and more on Trump’s lack of likability. He said people are in a bizarre time where they are giving into a mentality he never suspected, adding that voters simply want no Trump, no matter what. That prediction, of course, proved incorrect when Trump won the presidency and was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, with Vice President JD Vance.
In April 2026, Rogan declared himself politically homeless while harshly criticizing Trump’s MAGA fan base. He complained about having to accept what he described as weird, uninteresting, and unintelligent people who cling to the movement alongside genuine patriots, all lumped into one group. Rogan said the concept of making America great is a great idea, but criticized allowing anyone to join the team without standards, resulting in people spouting opinions that others are expected to support simply because they identify as MAGA.
Despite the growing rift, there appeared to be a brief warming of relations in April 2026, when Rogan appeared alongside Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and others as President Trump signed an executive order intended to accelerate medical treatments for mental illness using psychedelic drugs. Rogan explained that he had sent President Trump information about the issue, and the response came back quickly, saying it sounded great and asking if Rogan wanted FDA approval, adding that they should do it.
During that Oval Office meeting, President Trump acknowledged the tension between the former friends with a characteristic backhanded compliment. Trump said everyone respects Rogan but noted he is a little bit more liberal, adding that was okay and that he has many friends who are liberal.
Rogan’s influence on American politics remains significant. His show, The Joe Rogan Experience, reaches millions of listeners and has become a crucial platform for political figures seeking to connect with younger audiences. Trump himself spent three hours recording an episode with Rogan in October 2024, arriving late to a rally and leaving supporters waiting in the cold.
The podcaster’s latest prediction about 2028 reflects growing public dissatisfaction with the Trump administration’s foreign policy. While Rogan was instrumental in Trump’s 2024 victory, particularly among young male voters who consume his podcast regularly, his current criticism highlights the challenges the administration faces in maintaining support from its 2024 coalition.
As the 2028 election cycle approaches, Rogan’s prediction that Democrats will reclaim the White House adds another voice to growing concerns within Republican circles about the political costs of the Iran war. With polling showing support for the conflict hovering around 30 percent, the war has become an increasingly heavy burden for Trump and his party to carry into the next presidential election.
Whether Rogan’s 2028 prediction proves more accurate than his failed 2024 forecast remains to be seen, but his willingness to publicly break with the president he once championed signals a broader erosion of support that could reshape the political landscape heading into the next presidential race.
