A March 2026 poll has delivered what may be the most damaging blow yet to Melania Trump’s public standing. Her favorability rating now sits at -12, according to a CNN/SSRS survey fielded between March 26 and March 30. CNN’s senior data analyst Harry Enten called it the worst number ever documented for a modern first lady at this point in a presidency.
The unfavorable views exceed favorable ones by 12 points. That places her 37 points below Hillary Clinton’s rating during the equivalent period of Bill Clinton’s second term — and Clinton had been grappling with the political chaos of her husband’s sex scandal. Clinton managed to hold a +25 rating even under those circumstances.
Enten’s commentary on air was blunt. “Melania Trump breaking records in the way that you don’t want to break records — historically awful. The American people really don’t care for her,” he said.
Traditionally, first ladies poll significantly better than their presidential husbands. Even in highly polarized administrations, spouses retain a reservoir of public goodwill. That pattern has completely collapsed in Melania’s case.
When CNN’s Kate Bolduan asked Enten what might explain such a precipitous drop, he pointed directly at “Melania: Twenty Days to History,” a self-titled documentary that premiered on January 30, 2026. The film, directed by Brett Ratner and produced by Amazon MGM Studios, chronicled Melania in the days before her husband’s second inauguration.
Amazon paid approximately $40 million to acquire the film — about $26 million more than the second-highest bidder, according to The New York Times. The studio then committed another $35 million to marketing. That $75 million total represented an enormous financial gamble on a documentary centered on the first lady.
The gamble failed spectacularly. Opening weekend brought in about $7 million, which exceeded initial industry forecasts of $1 million to $5 million. President Trump promoted it heavily, calling it the “hottest” movie in America and repeatedly describing his wife as a “movie star.” But momentum evaporated almost immediately after that first weekend.
Within a month, the documentary had essentially vanished from public view. By February 25, “Melania” had disappeared entirely from the domestic box office top 38. The film’s theatrical footprint shrank from 3,300 screens at wide release to just 505. Total box office receipts came to around $17 million against the $75 million production and marketing budget — a catastrophic loss by any Hollywood standard.
Critical reception was brutal. Rotten Tomatoes recorded an 11 percent critics’ score. The audience score, however, registered at 99 percent — creating a record-setting divide between professional critics and user ratings on the platform. That disparity immediately raised suspicions, and the film was flagged for possible evidence of bulk ticket purchases inflating the numbers.
Letterboxd users review-bombed the documentary before it even opened. Critics described it as shallow, lifeless, and reminiscent of propaganda. Advertising posters in cities including Los Angeles were subjected to what was reported as “extensive and severe” vandalism. Rather than generating positive buzz, the film became a cultural lightning rod.
Ratner’s involvement created additional problems. During the film’s final two months in theaters, his name surfaced multiple times in newly released Epstein files from the Justice Department. Crew members publicly criticized the production, and filmmakers accused the project of using musical compositions without securing proper permissions.
Enten connected the documentary’s failure with the polling collapse, arguing that both data points reflect the same underlying reality: Melania Trump is “historically unpopular for a first lady.” Many Americans perceived the film as a political vanity project, regardless of intent. In the current political climate, such perceptions carry lasting consequences.
Her trajectory represents a stunning reversal. Back in May 2018 during Trump’s first term, Melania polled at +30. Given her husband’s divisiveness, that figure was notable. She had maintained distance from Washington’s daily political battles, and many Americans either respected that posture or simply didn’t have strong opinions about her.
By January 2025, that +30 had eroded to +3. The goodwill was draining away steadily. Then, between January 2025 and late March 2026, the bottom fell out completely. A 15-point plunge from marginally positive to deeply negative territory in just over a year constitutes a remarkable collapse, particularly for someone in what is typically a ceremonial position.
On April 9, 2026 — the same day the CNN poll results became public — Melania Trump made an unexpected appearance before reporters. She delivered a prepared statement from the Grand Foyer of the White House denying any personal association with Jeffrey Epstein. She did not take questions and offered no clear rationale for the timing of her remarks.
In the statement, Melania emphatically rejected any substantive link to the convicted sex offender and his accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell. “The lies linking me with the disgraceful Jeffrey Epstein need to end today,” she declared, acknowledging only that she and the president had occasionally attended the same social events as Epstein because of overlapping social circles in New York and Palm Beach.
She addressed a 2002 email she had sent to Maxwell in which she complimented a magazine profile of Epstein and invited Maxwell to call her, closing with “Love, Melania.” Maxwell had addressed her as “sweet pea.” The first lady dismissed the correspondence as casual and trivial.
She also denied that Epstein had introduced her to Donald Trump, stating that she met her husband by chance at a New York City party in 1998, as recounted in her book, “Melania.”
President Trump told a reporter he had not been informed of the statement before she delivered it — an unusual admission that added to the puzzlement over why Melania decided to speak out when she did.
Analysts note that the poll data was collected before the Epstein statement was made, so the two events are not directly connected. Still, having both developments hit the news cycle on the same day created damaging optics.
When Enten stacked Melania’s rating against every other second-term first lady in modern history, the contrast was stark. Nancy Reagan polled at +50 at the same point in her husband’s second term. Laura Bush was at +46. Michelle Obama registered +42. Jill Biden, during the comparable period in Joe Biden’s first term, also remained in positive territory.
Melania’s -12 doesn’t just lag behind those figures. It sits in a category by itself, far below any precedent.
Her approval now tracks closely with President Trump’s, whose own ratings have reached new lows amid economic dissatisfaction and the ongoing Iran conflict. A CNN/SSRS poll showed that just 31 percent approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, the lowest level recorded in either of his terms. Reuters/Ipsos polling found only 29 percent approved of his economic performance. A Harvard CAPS/Harris survey revealed that 53 percent of respondents believe the economy is worse now than it was under the Biden administration. The protective insulation that traditionally shields first ladies from political turbulence has completely evaporated for Melania.
Enten also revisited one of the most memorable episodes from Melania’s time in Washington. During Trump’s first term, she wore a jacket reading “I Really Don’t Care, Do U?” on a visit to a migrant detention facility. The image became iconic, sparking endless debate about her intentions and worldview.
The slogan, Enten suggested, has come back around. Based on the polling, the American public truly doesn’t care for Melania Trump. With midterms on the horizon, those numbers pose a serious challenge not just for her personal reputation but for Republicans trying to maintain control.
The White House response to the poll stuck to familiar talking points. Spokesperson Davis Ingle told reporters: “No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump.” Notably absent from that statement was any mention of Melania.
