On February 19, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a proposal for a potential distribution of government efficiency savings to American taxpayers. The proposal entails that 20% of cost reductions identified by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, could be returned to citizens as dividend payments.
This proposal was put forth at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) PRIORITY Summit held in Miami Beach, Florida. Trump suggested a division of savings from DOGE, stating, “There’s even under consideration a new concept where we give 20 percent of the DOGE savings to American citizens, and 20 percent goes to paying down debt,” said Trump. He further stated, “The numbers are incredible, Elon—so many millions, billions, hundreds of billions.”
The idea for this proposal was conceived by James Fishback, CEO of investment firm Azoria, who shared a detailed plan on social media platform X. Fishback’s plan suggested a distribution of around $5,000 per household to about 79 million households that are currently paying federal income tax. This proposed distribution is based on Musk’s initial claim that DOGE could potentially cut $2 trillion from the federal budget, with $400 billion (20%) potentially being distributed to taxpayers starting July 2026.
However, Musk has since revised his initial $2 trillion estimate. In a January interview with a political strategist, Musk admitted that the figure was a “best-case outcome,” and that he believes he has a “good shot” at reducing it by only half.
The savings claims made by DOGE have been met with significant examination. Despite the agency claiming $55 billion in savings via a “wall of receipts”, a detailed review revealed substantial discrepancies. In one glaring error, DOGE claimed an $8 billion saving from the cancellation of a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) contract that was only worth $8 million.
CBS News further identified additional accounting errors, including misunderstandings of government contracting processes that resulted in overestimated savings. DOGE incorrectly calculated “indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity” contracts, claiming $654 million in savings when actual spending was approximately $400 million.
The cancellation of contracts by the program has led to real-world consequences. Many terminated contracts were related to diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, including the cancellation of a Department of Education project supporting over 1,070 youth with disabilities and HIV/AIDS prevention efforts in Africa.
Economists are expressing concerns over the potential economic impact of such dividend payments. Research suggests that previous direct payments to Americans during the pandemic may have contributed to inflation, with government stimulus estimated to have added 2.6 percentage points to the 7.9% annual inflation rate recorded in February 2022.
The approach of the DOGE program to federal spending reduction has faced criticism from contracting experts. One former federal contracting official described DOGE’s savings claims as “completely disingenuous.” The program has also terminated contracts with several media outlets, including Politico, Bloomberg, The New York Times, and The Washington Post, claiming approximately $11 million in savings.
Despite doubts about the accuracy of DOGE’s reported savings, Trump insists that the potential for dividend payments would motivate citizens to report wasteful government spending as they would directly benefit from the identified savings. The administration has yet to provide specific details about how the remaining 60% of claimed DOGE savings would be used.
